Why Nobody Is Selling: The Rate Lock-In Effect in Northern Colorado

Watch: Jason Levi on why nobody is selling in Northern Colorado · Watch on YouTube →

What Is the Rate Lock-In Effect?

A lot of homeowners bought or refinanced when mortgage rates were very low. If they sell, they give up that rate, and their next home comes with a mortgage at today's rate. Even if they would like more space or a different neighborhood, the higher monthly payment on the next home can make moving feel like a bad trade.

So they stay put. In his July 2023 update, Jason put it simply:

What Owners Do Instead of Selling

In his February 2023 update, Jason described what he was seeing: sellers who might otherwise move were deciding to rent their homes out instead of selling them. They keep the low-rate mortgage, and the home becomes a rental rather than a listing.

Others simply wait. They hold off on a move they would have made in a different rate environment, which means fewer homes come onto the market each month.

• Stay and wait: keep the low rate and put off the move
• Rent it out: keep the home and the mortgage, and buy or rent elsewhere
• Sell anyway: usually because life requires it, such as a job change, a growing family or downsizing

Why Fewer Listings Keep Prices Firm

Jason's point in his 2023 updates was simple supply and demand. Low inventory means more buyers competing for each home, and that competition supports prices. In his July 2023 update, he noted that buyers were still moving into Colorado from other parts of the country even as listings stayed low.

That is the standoff in the title of his video: steady demand from people moving here and limited supply from owners who are not selling. When both are true, prices do not fall as much as people expect them to when rates are high.

For a dated look at how this played out from 2023 to 2026, read our Northern Colorado housing market timeline.

Where Things Stand in 2026

The rate gap has not gone away. Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.24% on October 29, 2026, compared with 6.17% a year earlier. For an owner with a much lower rate, that gap still shapes the decision to move.

Inventory has loosened compared with the tightest stretches of 2023, but it is still below what Jason has described as a balanced market of about six months of supply:

Our months of supply guide explains how to read these numbers.

What This Means If You Are Buying

Lock-in limits how many homes come on the market, so it pays to be ready when the right one does. Get pre-approved, know your full monthly payment and decide in advance what you can be flexible on.

It also means you are often not competing with as many buyers while rates are high. In several of his updates, Jason pointed out that the slower seasons, like the holidays, bring fewer buyers and more motivated sellers. Any plan to refinance later depends on where rates go, so make sure the payment works at today's rate.

Our guide to what your Fort Collins mortgage payment really costs and is 2026 a good time to buy in Fort Collins can help you plan.

What This Means If You Own a Home

If you have a low rate, staying put can be the right call. If you need to move, the question is how the numbers work for your situation: what the home would sell for, what the next home would cost each month and whether renting out your current home makes sense.

If you do sell, less competition from other sellers can work in your favor, but only if the home is priced and prepared well. With more than 40% of Fort Collins homes taking a price drop in September 2026 (Redfin), pricing matters. Read why overpriced homes sit before you set a number.

Sources and Further Reading

• Redfin: Fort Collins housing market
• Colorado Association of REALTORS: September 2026 market report
• Freddie Mac: Primary Mortgage Market Survey
• Consumer Financial Protection Bureau: buying a house

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the rate lock-in effect?

It is when homeowners with low mortgage rates choose not to sell because their next home would come with a higher rate and a higher monthly payment.

Why are some owners renting out their homes instead of selling?

In his February 2023 update, Jason said some sellers were renting their homes out so they could keep their low-rate mortgage rather than give it up by selling.

Does low inventory keep home prices up?

Jason has explained that low inventory means more buyers competing for each home, which supports prices, especially while people keep moving to the area.

How much inventory does Northern Colorado have now?

About 3.1 months of supply for Fort Collins single-family homes and about 3.7 months for Weld County, per the Colorado Association of REALTORS for September 2026.

What are mortgage rates right now?

Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.24% on October 29, 2026, compared with 6.17% a year earlier.

Whether you are weighing a move or waiting for the right home, we are happy to run the numbers with you and talk through your options.