Is Everyone Leaving Fort Collins? What the 2026 Data Actually Shows

Watch: Why "everyone is leaving Fort Collins" is wrong, Jason Levi's breakdown of the 2026 data · Watch on YouTube →

Why the "Everyone Is Leaving" Story Spread

Jason sees two things happening at once. Nationally, some markets really are correcting, including parts of Florida, Texas suburbs and inland California, and crash videos from those markets get big audiences. Creators in other cities started swapping in their own city's name. Locally, many people priced out of Denver and Boulder over the last few years are looking for reassurance that leaving Colorado was the right call.

His point is simple: if you are deciding whether to move here, decide on data, not a thumbnail.

Larimer County Is Still Growing

Jason starts with census population estimates and the Colorado State Demography Office. In the estimates he cites, Larimer County grew about 0.8% in the year to July 1, 2025, roughly double Colorado's 0.4%, and added about 18,000 people between the 2020 census and 2025. As Jason puts it, that is not a county emptying out. It is a county adding a midsize town.

Next door, Weld County, where most of Windsor and Severance sit, grew faster still, and Jason notes it posted the largest numeric gain of any Colorado county that year. The state's demographers named Douglas, Larimer and Weld as the counties with the strongest positive net migration. Smaller towns such as Timnath, Severance and Wellington have grown even faster in percentage terms.

From what Jason sees on the buyer side, newcomers tend to fall into four groups:

• CSU staff and faculty, and businesses connected to the university
• Healthcare workers, as UCHealth keeps expanding
• Advanced manufacturing along the I-25 corridor
• Remote and hybrid workers from the Denver metro who only need to be in an office a couple of days a week

Prices Have Not Crashed

This is where the exodus videos fall apart. If buyers were fleeing, sale prices would be falling hard. They are not. According to Redfin, the Fort Collins median sale price in September 2026 was $549,738, up 0.9% from a year earlier, and homes sold for about 98.8% of list price. The Colorado Association of REALTORS reported a single-family median of $590,000 in September 2026, down 1.7%. Flat to slightly mixed is a normal market, not a collapse.

Jason is careful about what a median means. It tracks the middle of the market, not what your specific house did, and it can move when the mix of homes that sell changes.

The crash videos get one thing half right: buyers have more choice and more room to negotiate than they have had in years. But there is a difference between more inventory and a glut. Jason describes a glut as six, eight or twelve months of supply with builders dumping product. The Colorado Association of REALTORS put Fort Collins single-family supply at about 3.1 months in September 2026, which is a functioning market.

Price cuts are common too. Redfin reported that 42.7% of Fort Collins homes had a price drop in September 2026. In Jason's view, a price cut is usually a seller who listed at 2021 pricing in a 2026 market. It corrects the list price, and it is not the same thing as a collapse in sale prices.

Who Is Actually Leaving, and Why

Some people are leaving, and Jason does not pretend otherwise. Much of it is equity: owners who bought 15 or 20 years ago, watched their homes rise in value, and cashed out to Arizona, Texas or a state with no income tax. Larimer County skews a bit older than Colorado overall, according to the census figures Jason cites, which fits a steady stream of people leaving while the total population still grows.

Others leave because the total cost of owning went up in ways a headline price does not show:

Fort Collins is still cheaper than Boulder and many desirable Denver areas. But, as Jason says, cheaper than Boulder is a very different claim from affordable. For more on the cost side, see 7 expensive changes in Fort Collins for 2026.

The Growth Is Moving East

Fort Collins city limits are close to built out, with limited land, growth management boundaries and infrastructure limits. So most new residents of the region land in Timnath, Windsor, Severance, Wellington and Johnstown.

Someone who sells in Fort Collins and buys new construction ten minutes away can show up in the data as a departure. They did not leave Northern Colorado. They moved across the highway for a bigger lot and a lower price per square foot. In practice, Jason suggests your search should not start and stop at the city limits: the eastern corridor is where to look for new construction and more space, while Old Town and established neighborhoods with mature trees cost more.

Who Fort Collins Works For, and Who It Doesn't

Jason's honest list of who Fort Collins makes sense for in 2026:

• Families who want Old Town, trail access and Poudre School District (confirm boundaries for a specific address with the district)
• People priced out of Denver or Boulder who want more house and a real downtown
• Anyone who wants four-season outdoor access without mountain-town prices; Jason says you are about 40 minutes from serious hiking and about an hour and a half from skiing
• People working in CSU, healthcare, tech or advanced manufacturing

And who it may not suit: anyone whose main goal is the lowest cost of living in Colorado, people who want big-city nightlife or pro sports nearby, buyers waiting for 2020 prices to return, and anyone likely to sell within about three years, when transaction costs can outweigh any gain. Mortgage rates matter here too: Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed averaged 7.24% on October 29, 2026.

Sources and Further Reading

• Redfin: Fort Collins housing market
• Colorado Association of REALTORS: September 2026 market report
• Freddie Mac: Primary Mortgage Market Survey
• City of Fort Collins

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Fort Collins losing population?

No. Census estimates Jason Levi cites show Larimer County growing about 0.8% in the year to July 2025 and adding roughly 18,000 people since 2020.

Are Fort Collins home prices crashing?

No. Redfin reported a September 2026 median sale price of $549,738, up 0.9% year over year, with homes selling for about 98.8% of list price.

Who is leaving Fort Collins?

Largely long-time owners cashing out their equity, people squeezed by rising taxes, insurance and HOA costs, and locals moving to nearby towns such as Windsor, Timnath or Severance.

Is there too much inventory in Fort Collins?

Buyers have more choice than in recent years, but the Colorado Association of REALTORS put single-family supply at about 3.1 months in September 2026, which is a functioning market, not a glut.

Where is Northern Colorado growth going?

Mostly east of Fort Collins, to Timnath, Windsor, Severance, Wellington and Johnstown, because Fort Collins has limited land left to build on.

If you are weighing Fort Collins against Windsor, Timnath or Loveland, we can run the real monthly numbers, with current taxes and insurance, for the towns on your list.